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How long will my money last?

Model your retirement drawdown year by year, find your safe withdrawal rate, and stress-test different returns and inflation — free, no login.

Withdrawal-rate guidance reflects 2026 retirement-planning conventions (4% rule, FIRE-adjusted rates). Last reviewed January 2026. Educational estimate, not financial advice.

How to use this portfolio longevity calculator

Switch between "How long will my money last?" (enter your withdrawal amount) and "How much can I safely withdraw?" (enter your target retirement duration). Adjust the return and inflation sliders to stress-test different market scenarios. The chart shows your projected balance year by year.

The 4% rule explained

The 4% rule, derived from the Trinity Study (1998), states that a retiree withdrawing 4% of their initial portfolio balance — adjusted for inflation each year — has historically had a very high probability (historically ~96%) of their portfolio lasting 30 years, assuming a mix of stocks and bonds.

For a $1,000,000 portfolio, the 4% rule means withdrawing $40,000 in year one, then approximately $41,200 in year two (assuming 3% inflation), and so on. The critical insight: the rule is based on historical data and is not guaranteed — sequence of returns risk means a bad market in the first few years of retirement can dramatically shorten portfolio life.

Safe withdrawal rates for early retirement (FIRE)

The 4% rule was designed for a 30-year retirement starting at age 65. If you retire at 45, you may need your portfolio to last 50+ years. Many FIRE community researchers suggest a more conservative 3.0–3.5% withdrawal rate for retirements exceeding 40 years. Use the "Target Duration" slider to model your specific timeline.

How inflation affects your retirement portfolio

Inflation is the silent risk in retirement planning. At 3% annual inflation, $40,000 today has the purchasing power of only $22,000 in 20 years. If you maintain a fixed $40,000 withdrawal, you're effectively cutting your spending every year in real terms. If you adjust withdrawals upward with inflation, you preserve purchasing power but deplete your portfolio faster.

The toggle in this calculator lets you compare both approaches side by side.

Sequence of returns risk

This calculator uses an assumed constant return rate, which does not reflect real-world volatility. In reality, sequence of returns risk means that retiring into a bear market — even if average returns recover later — can permanently impair your portfolio. A 30% market decline in year 1 of retirement is far more damaging than the same decline in year 20. For a complete picture, consider running a Monte Carlo simulation or consulting a financial planner for your specific situation.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 4% rule?

The 4% rule, from the Trinity Study, states that a retiree who withdraws 4% of their portfolio in year one and adjusts for inflation each year thereafter has historically had a very high probability of their portfolio lasting 30 years. For a $1 million portfolio, this means withdrawing $40,000 per year. The rule was derived from historical US market returns and may be more conservative in today's lower-return environment.

How long will $1 million last in retirement?

It depends on your withdrawal amount, investment returns, and inflation. At a 4% withdrawal rate ($40,000/year), a $1 million portfolio invested at 7% with 3% inflation historically lasts indefinitely. At a 6% withdrawal rate ($60,000/year) with the same assumptions, the portfolio lasts approximately 25 years. Use the calculator to model your specific scenario.

What is a safe withdrawal rate for early retirement?

For a 30-year retirement, 4% is widely considered safe based on historical data. For longer retirements (40+ years, common in early retirement / FIRE), many researchers suggest 3.0–3.5% to account for the longer time horizon and sequence-of-returns risk. The safest rate is highly dependent on your asset allocation and market conditions at the start of retirement.

Does inflation affect how long my portfolio lasts?

Yes, significantly. If you withdraw a fixed dollar amount, inflation erodes its purchasing power. If you adjust withdrawals for inflation each year, your withdrawals grow in dollar terms, depleting the portfolio faster. The calculator lets you model both approaches — fixed withdrawal or inflation-adjusted withdrawal.

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